I love the "uncertainty curve" concept you described, James. I think it's a great mechanism to handle timelines and "estimations".
It reminds me a bit of Shape Up, in particular, the chapter: "Estimates don't show uncertainty". As you mentioned, the key is to start with a forecast until you can remove uncertainty from the equation.
Excellent post! I completely agree that forecasting is a better approach to communicating expectations with the business. It also looks nice on quarterly roadmaps which we all know execs love.
I have still found value in the individual engineers and teams going through the estimation process. It helps them work through some of that uncertainty upfront by thinking through the risk areas and dependencies.
I agree that estimation is always important, even if it is highly inaccurate. In fact, sometimes a forecast is a great external-facing tool to use, when inside the team you can still stick to specific dates if it helps.
Thank you for the comment! The only way you can get round that is to accept collectively that scope is flexible, and some features might not make the cut.
I recently finished reading “How Big Things Get Done”. It talks about why 99.5% of huge projects are either later, over budget, or under deliver on expectations (IT projects included).
Often in our world, those dates are given with barely any planning. While you can’t foresee everything in advance, a through planning process can reduce the uncertainty and narrow the range from the beginning.
I love the "uncertainty curve" concept you described, James. I think it's a great mechanism to handle timelines and "estimations".
It reminds me a bit of Shape Up, in particular, the chapter: "Estimates don't show uncertainty". As you mentioned, the key is to start with a forecast until you can remove uncertainty from the equation.
Thanks for the comment!
Shape Up is indeed a good framework. I wish I used it more for real.
Excellent post! I completely agree that forecasting is a better approach to communicating expectations with the business. It also looks nice on quarterly roadmaps which we all know execs love.
I have still found value in the individual engineers and teams going through the estimation process. It helps them work through some of that uncertainty upfront by thinking through the risk areas and dependencies.
Thank you Dustin! I appreciate it.
I agree that estimation is always important, even if it is highly inaccurate. In fact, sometimes a forecast is a great external-facing tool to use, when inside the team you can still stick to specific dates if it helps.
Excellent article James !
This approach works but only if the assumption you've so correctly stated in the last para holds true.
How do you deal with it if the executives are pressurising the teams to "put a specific date on it "?
Thank you for the comment! The only way you can get round that is to accept collectively that scope is flexible, and some features might not make the cut.
I recently finished reading “How Big Things Get Done”. It talks about why 99.5% of huge projects are either later, over budget, or under deliver on expectations (IT projects included).
Often in our world, those dates are given with barely any planning. While you can’t foresee everything in advance, a through planning process can reduce the uncertainty and narrow the range from the beginning.
I hadn't heard of that book — added it to my list. Thank you.
It's surprisingly fun to read. Based on your writings, I'm pretty sure you'll enjoy it too :)